இன்று நள்ளிரவிற்குள் அமரிக்க அரசு மூடப்படலாம்

Shutdown Would Cost U.S. Economy $300 Million a Day, IHS Says

A partial shutdown of the federal government would cost the U.S. at least $300 million a day in lost economic output at the start, according to IHS Inc.

While that is a small fraction of the country’s $15.7 trillion economy, the daily impact of a shutdown is likely to accelerate if it continues as it depresses confidence and spending by businesses and consumers.

Lexington, Massachusetts-based IHS estimates that its forecast for 2.2 percent annualized growth in the fourth quarter will be reduced 0.2 percentage point in a weeklong shutdown. A 21-day closing like the one in 1995-96 would cut growth by 0.9 to 1.4 percentage point, according to Guy LeBas, chief fixed income strategist at Janney Montgomery Scott LLC in Philadelphia.

VIDEO: Obama Says Shutdown `Height of Irresponsibility’

“Greater uncertainty will create hesitancy on the part of businesses to embark on new projects” and encourage consumers to save rather than spend, LeBas said in a research note. “An extended government shutdown has the potential to reverse a good portion of the Federal Reserve’s low-interest rate stimulus.”

The Fed on Sept. 18 unexpectedly refrained from reducing the $85 billion pace of bond purchases intended to boost growth, saying it needs more time to assess the economy’s progress. Federal Reserve Bank of New York President William C. Dudley said last week the budget showdown in Washington is among the risks to the outlook.

The U.S. government is poised at midnight for its first partial shutdown in 17 years. Republicans and Democrats remained at odds over whether to tie any changes to the 2010 Affordable Care Act to a short-term extension of government funding.

VIDEO: U.S. Shutdown Won’t Impact `Big’ Programs
Senate Vote
Failing to fund government operations “would throw a wrench into the gears of our economy,” President Barack Obama said today at the White House. “The idea of putting the American people’s hard-earned progress at risk is the height of irresponsibility, and it doesn’t have to happen.”

Concern that a shutdown would stunt economic growth sent stocks lower, trimming the biggest quarterly gain since the start of 2012. The yield on 10-year Treasury notes traded at an almost seven-week low.

Stocks Decline
The Standard & Poor’s 500 fell 0.6 percent to 1,681.55 at the close of trading in New York. All 10 main industries in the S&P 500 dropped, with consumer goods, oil and gas and financial shares falling the most.

A shutdown would initially slow the expansion because output lost when workers are furloughed subtracts from gross domestic product. Economists estimate that 800,000 to 1 million of the more than 2 million civilian government workers would be furloughed.

While federal employees were repaid after the 1995-1996 furlough, a longer shutdown may prompt them to start paring their spending.

“Each day the shutdown drags on, the more federal employees will discount the possibility that they won’t get back to work anytime soon, and they will pull back on their spending,” Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics Inc., said in an e-mail.

Consumer Confidence
If a shutdown drags on, it would start to shake consumer and business confidence more broadly, economists said. Household spending accounts for 70 percent of the economy.

Bank of America Merrill Corp. projects that a two-week closing would curb fourth-quarter growth by 0.5 percentage point, while closing for all of October would shave 2 percentage points from GDP, Ethan Harris, co-head of global economics research, wrote in a note to clients.

A shutdown will probably add to the budget deficit because it “is costly to stop and start programs,” Harris wrote.

Congress and the White House also will face off over raising the nation’s $16.7 trillion debt ceiling. The Treasury has said its ability to borrow will end on about Oct. 17 unless the limit is increased. Treasury Secretary Jacob J. Lew has said that failing to raise the limit would risk putting the U.S. into default and could be “catastrophic.”

“The longer the shutdown, the more damage will accrue to business and consumer confidence,” Eric Green, New York-based global head of foreign exchange, rates and commodities at TD Securities USA LLC, wrote in a note today. “A longer shutdown stretching into mid-October, when the Treasury estimated that the debt ceiling will need to be raised, would likely magnify the hit to economic activity by raising the risk of a bad outcome on the debt ceiling.”

To contact the reporters on this story: Jeanna Smialek in Washington at jsmialek1@bloomberg.net; Ian Katz in Washington at ikatz2@bloomberg.net

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Chris Wellisz at cwellisz@bloomberg.net

இதனால்  பலலட்சம் மக்கள் வேலை இழப்பார்கள் ஆனால்  Congress, the Senate, and the President   இவர்கள்  பாதிக்கப்பட  மாட்டார்கள்  இவர்கள் தமது வேலையைச் சரியாகச்   செய்யவில்லை என்பது  உண்மை
ஆனாலும் —-  இவர்கள் தமது வேலையைச் சரியாகச் செய்யாவிட்டாலும்  —-  இவர்கள்  தமது ஊதியத்தை இழக்க மாட்டார்கள் 

Uncle Sam. I like him. Oklahoma and Indiana. Official and Unofficial.